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"https://ws.dgbas.gov.tw/001/Upload/463/relfile/10980/236719/1228e67e-baf1-43b6-913f-586da0ffe711.ods", "publisher": "行政院主計總處", "checkedOn": "2026-10-17", "kind": "official_spreadsheet", "period": "2026-08", "sha256": "96bcefcf9b2bb80c6e5c026aee909a12ccfb8a60278b622f6768bb75520609c6" }, { "id": "dgbas_unemployment", "title": "表15 失業率按年齡分", "url": "https://ws.dgbas.gov.tw/001/Upload/463/relfile/10980/236719/7fdcd308-229e-4e0e-a49a-ce6ca450138c.ods", "publisher": "行政院主計總處", "checkedOn": "2026-10-17", "kind": "official_spreadsheet", "period": "2026-08", "sha256": "e8354e6e8b6783575d1cb9b8adf54f331ec91879351779d0772f29fd4bb870be" }, { "id": "mol_older_labor", "title": "115年8月中高齡及高齡勞動力參與率創歷年同月新高", "url": "https://www.mol.gov.tw/1607/1632/1633/99470/", "publisher": "勞動部", "checkedOn": "2026-10-17", "kind": "official_press_release", "releasedOn": "2026-10-08", "period": "2026-08" }, { "id": "nhi2024", "title": "健保署：113年全民健康保險統計", "url": "https://www.nhi.gov.tw/ch/dl-91309-c4228a67fa3a4ff8a277016068582f71-1.pdf", "publisher": "衛生福利部中央健康保險署", "published": "2025-12", "dataDate": "2024", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "表38（書頁246；PDF第272頁），表75（書頁374~383；PDF第400~409頁）", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "nhiHistorical", "title": "健保署：112年全民健康保險統計分析", "url": "https://www.nhi.gov.tw/ch/dl-83055-1f7f22b4844a4320b411080f5cd7c936-1.pdf", "publisher": "衛生福利部中央健康保險署", "dataDate": "2013~2023", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "書頁4、24、25（PDF第14、34、35頁）", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "nhiFinanceAug2026", "title": "健保署：115年8月全民健康保險業務執行報告", "url": "https://www.nhi.gov.tw/ch/dl-102639-dda2a8296a674399ab2815c697415655-1.pdf", "publisher": "衛生福利部中央健康保險署", "published": "2026-09-17", "dataDate": "2026-08-31", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "表5（PDF第13頁）、表8（PDF第19頁）；2021~2025為審定決算，2026為月報帳列", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "nhiFinanceSep2026", "title": "健保署：115年9月全民健康保險基金會計月報", "url": "https://www.nhi.gov.tw/ch/dl-102791-560b681c62cc440ea8bdb83e3d9a1a12-1.pdf", "publisher": "衛生福利部中央健康保險署", "dataDate": "2026-09-30", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "平衡表書頁4（PDF第6頁），安全準備；收支餘絀表書頁1~3", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "policyEstimate", "title": "中央社：衛福部估長者健保費補助約400億元、403萬人", "url": "https://www.cna.com.tw/news/ahel/202610160316.aspx", "publisher": "中央社（引述衛福部文字說明）", "published": "2026-10-16", "dataDate": "2026年底推估", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "evidence": "official_estimate_reported_by_news" }, { "id": "existingSubsidies", "title": "健保署：各級政府辦理保險對象健保費補助項目一覽表", "url": "https://www.nhi.gov.tw/ch/cp-4721-0d598-2645-1.html", "publisher": "衛生福利部中央健康保險署", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "evidence": "official_policy_list" }, { "id": "existingCentralBudget", "title": "中央社：行政院說明既有弱勢長者健保費補助", "url": "https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610160328.aspx", "publisher": "中央社（引述行政院長）", "published": "2026-10-16", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "evidence": "official_statement_reported_by_news" }, { "id": "assumptions", "title": "本網站探索假設", "url": null, "publisher": "本網站", "dataDate": "2026-10-17", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "evidence": "user_adjustable_assumption" }, { "id": "existingSeniorAid2026People", "title": "行政院：全方位守護長者，共築幸福晚美人生", "publisher": "行政院／衛生福利部", "url": "https://www.ey.gov.tw/File/7A5E1D2A73E3B0C6?A=C", "published": "2026-10-15", "dataDate": "2026-05", "locator": "簡報第7頁：115年5月補助70歲以上弱勢老人健保費14萬1,293人", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "existingSeniorAid2026Budget", "title": "2026年既有70+中低收入長者保費補助預算說明", "publisher": "聯合新聞網（引述行政院發言人）", "url": "https://udn.com/news/story/6656/9819821", "published": "2026-10-16", "dataDate": "2026年度預算", "locator": "12.2億元，非年度實支，未作新法資格逐人去重", "evidence": "official_statement_reported_by_news" }, { "id": "existingSeniorAid2023", "title": "衛福部持續研議弱勢老人健保補助機制，以兼顧世代公平及照顧長者", "publisher": "衛生福利部社會及家庭署", "url": "https://www.mohw.gov.tw/cp-2704-78918-1.html", "published": "2024-05-30", "dataDate": "2023", "locator": "補助112,196人，984,683,000元；另65~69歲由地方訂定基準", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "annualWage2025", "title": "114年12月及全年工業及服務業薪資統計結果", "publisher": "行政院主計總處", "url": "https://www.stat.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=3703&s=235863", "published": "2026-02-11", "period": "2025全年", "locator": "全體受僱員工每人全年總薪資760,632元，含本外國籍、全時及部分工時；含獎金與加班費。" }, { "id": "nhiPremiumShares", "title": "健保署：保險費負擔比率", "publisher": "衛生福利部中央健康保險署", "url": "https://www.nhi.gov.tw/ch/cp-3257-29d99-2570-1.html", "published": "2022-12-30", "updated": "2023-11-29", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "一般公民營事業、機構等有一定雇主受僱者：本人及眷屬30%、投保單位60%、政府10%；其他投保類別比例不同。", "evidence": "official_policy_list", "note": "用於說明等額醫療支撐不等於員工個人實繳保費；未將30/60/10套用為全體健保收入占比。" }, { "id": "nursingWorkload2025", "title": "因應醫院壅塞，衛福部強化三大因應策略", "publisher": "衛生福利部醫事司", "url": "https://www.mohw.gov.tw/cp-2704-81609-1.html", "published": "2025-02-24", "locator": "醫院壅塞造成醫護工作負荷過重；用作角色起始處境的質性依據，未用於分數或疾病風險校準。" }, { "id": "nursingEnvironment2026", "title": "三班護病比入法 用制度支持護理人員", "publisher": "衛生福利部", "url": "https://mohw.gov.tw/cp-2704-86309-1.html", "period": "2026-05", "locator": "每年夜班獎勵47億元、護病比達標獎勵16億元及新手導師3.6億元，合計66.6億元；專款專用，另述健保投入25億元不重複計入此合計", "published": "2026-05-08", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "evidence": "official_program_budget" }, { "id": "centralBudget2027Draft", "title": "行政院第4017次院會決議：116年度中央政府總預算案", "publisher": "行政院", "url": "https://www.ey.gov.tw/Page/4EC2394BE4EE9DD0/cedadfc2-d9bb-4607-a4ea-fde2114adf82", "published": "2026-08-20", "dataDate": "2027年度預算案", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "討論事項二（三）歲入歲出各39,266億元；（五）6 撥補健保基金600億元；屬預算案，非現金可用額或實際撥付", "evidence": "official_budget_proposal" }, { "id": "centralSupplement2026Draft", "title": "行政院院會通過115年度中央政府總預算追加預算案", "publisher": "行政院主計總處", "url": "https://www.dgbas.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=3602&s=236661", "published": "2026-09-03", "dataDate": "2026年度追加預算案", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "追加案歲入35,471億元、歲出35,946億元、差短475億元、含還本融資調度2,085億元；未視為已執行決算", "evidence": "official_budget_proposal" }, { "id": "centralDebtAug2026", "title": "健全政府財政，維護財政永續", "publisher": "財政部", "url": "https://www.mof.gov.tw/singlehtml/0de5f2116d744de4bb5e3981dc6fd0b8?cntId=2f5fa31a7c7940e3b4c64ecc91535e8b", "dataDate": "2026-08-31", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "中央政府1年以上公共債務未償餘額占前3年度名目GDP平均數：8月底實際22.5%，115年度審議後預算數25.2%", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "nhi2026ApprovedForecast", "title": "114年全民健康保險會年報：115年度總額預算核定結果及財務試算", "publisher": "衛生福利部全民健康保險會", "url": "https://service.mohw.gov.tw/ebook/nhic/%E5%B9%B4%E5%A0%B1/114/ebook/2025/files/basic-html/page75.html", "dataDate": "2026-01-20核定後的2026年度預估", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "電子書第75頁，表3-4：總額9,883.35億元、費率5.17%、年度短絀428億元、年底準備1,651億元及2.16個月；非9月實際數", "evidence": "official_forecast" }, { "id": "subsidyFundingWarning2024", "title": "老人福利法修正恐大幅增加中央支出：修法內容未指明彌補資金來源", "publisher": "行政院新聞傳播處", "url": "https://www.ey.gov.tw/Page/9277F759E41CCD91//93d48b62-9b83-441b-a519-b33d63f03a4e", "published": "2024-12-26", "dataDate": "2024年同類修法提案", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "舊提案估新增中央支出384億元，指出未指明彌補資金來源；不是2026年本次修法的最終估算", "evidence": "official_forecast" }, { "id": "medicalAssociationsFundingWarning2026", "title": "中央社：七大醫界團體對長者健保費補助的財源與醫療排擠疑慮", "publisher": "中央社（轉述七大醫界團體共同聲明）", "url": "https://www.cna.com.tw/news/ahel/202610160091.aspx", "published": "2026-10-16", "dataDate": "2026-10-16三讀前共同聲明", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "團體擔心缺乏穩定財源將影響基金、費率及護理人力等既有醫療投資；新聞轉述，非已取得團體原始聲明。", "evidence": "stakeholder_statement_reported_by_news", "note": "風險警示未提供排擠比例；網站3%預設為使用者指定情境，非研究估計或已發生支出削減。" }, { "id": "nursingStaffingStudy2026", "title": "三班護病比政策對各層級醫院護理人力的影響與對策—觀察型研究", "publisher": "護理雜誌 73(4):e26406；Wang等人", "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42532817/", "doi": "10.6224/JN.26406", "published": "2026-08", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "摘要：207名護理主管與680名護理師線上問卷；實際護理人力/三班最低所需人力平均86.8%（SD22.4）", "evidence": "survey_sample", "note": "研究樣本，非全國普查；摘要未交代問卷收集年份，出版年不等於調查年。86.8%是人力相對最低所需人力，不能解讀為全國只完成86.8%醫療或已有13.2%未服務需求。" }, { "id": "nursingWorkforceFlow2025", "title": "衛福部回復114年11月19日立法院書面質詢：護理人力缺工與執業率", "publisher": "衛生福利部／立法院議事暨公報資訊網", "url": "https://ppg.ly.gov.tw/ppg/SittingAttachment/download/2025111436/22002025450100215003.pdf", "dataDate": "2025年10月執業人數、2024年醫院離職率", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "PDF第3頁：2025年10月執業198,564人，同比增加4,908人，醫院增加2,861人；2024年醫院離職率11.58%，2023年12.61%。", "evidence": "official_workforce_report", "note": "離職可能為醫院間流動或轉社區執業，不能當全國淨人力流失率。本網站3%額外有效量能損失未由此推導。" }, { "id": "whoSafeNurseStaffing2026", "title": "WHO／Europe：不安全護理配置可能傷害病人並促使護理人員離開", "publisher": "世界衛生組織歐洲區域辦事處", "url": "https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/18-02-2026-unsafe-nurse-staffing-in-european-region-can-harm-patients-and-drive-nurses-out-of-the-profession", "published": "2026-02-18", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "政策說明：人力短缺、工作負荷、倦怠與流失及病人安全的相互影響。", "evidence": "official_policy_guidance", "note": "支持回饋方向，未提供本網站85分、連續兩年、3%量能損失或50%需求遞延的校準。" }, { "id": "queenslandNurseRatio2021", "title": "護病比立法對護理配置、病人死亡、再住院與住院日之影響：前瞻性醫院比較研究", "publisher": "Lancet 397:1905~1913；McHugh等人", "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33989553/", "doi": "10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00768-6", "published": "2021-05-11", "dataDate": "澳洲昆士蘭2016及2018年醫院資料", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "27家介入、28家比較醫院；每護理師少照護一名病人的配置改善，與再住院OR0.93、住院日IRR0.97相關。", "evidence": "prospective_observational_study", "note": "支持配置影響後續醫療使用的方向；非臺灣係數，不將勝算比當成發生率，未套為疾病或死亡加成。" }, { "id": "nhsDemandCapacityModels", "title": "NHS England：需求與容量模型及等待存量", "publisher": "NHS England", "url": "https://www.england.nhs.uk/ourwork/demand-and-capacity/service-level-demand-and-capacity-planning/models/", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "區分所需容量、可用容量及等待名單，依預約、連續療程、急診等服務路徑選擇模型。", "evidence": "official_model_guidance", "note": "支持延後需求的存量建模，未提供適用臺灣全健保的50%跨年遞延比例。", "technicalGuidanceUrl": "https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/core-model-technical-guidance-v1.0.pdf" }, { "id": "nurseActualTurnover2026", "title": "倦怠、離職意願與實際離職：美國病人照護工作者前瞻性研究", "publisher": "Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine；Boden等人", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13496025/", "doi": "10.1097/JOM.0000000000003713", "published": "2026-03-23", "dataDate": "2023年6月至2024年1月問卷；追蹤至2024年底", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "表1、表5：1,162位護理師，平均追蹤16.2月，69人實際離職；每週以上倦怠HR3.99（95% CI 1.80~8.83），Cox模型1,068人。", "evidence": "prospective_observational_study", "note": "結局為離開原醫院，含自願、非自願及退休；非離開護理職業或扣除招募後的淨量能流失，不能直接校準3%。" }, { "id": "usNurseFteShock2022", "title": "美國護理師FTE在疫情期間的下降：A Worrisome Drop In The Number Of Young Nurses", "publisher": "Health Affairs Forefront；Auerbach等人", "url": "https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/worrisome-drop-number-young-nurses", "doi": "10.1377/forefront.20220412.311784", "published": "2022-04-13", "dataDate": "1982~2021；重點2019~2021", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "CPS 23~69歲護理師、40小時FTE。2020約320萬，2021年減逾10萬；2019~2021全體下降1.8%、醫院下降3.9%。", "evidence": "original_workforce_analysis", "note": "1.8%及3.9%是兩年合計，不是年度率；逾10萬對約320萬為約3%量級，非精確3.0%估計。疫情多重原因衝擊，不是倦怠因果係數，也不是臺灣持續年減預測。" }, { "id": "usNurseFteRecovery2024", "title": "疫情後美國護理師人力恢復與未來推估", "publisher": "JAMA Health Forum；Auerbach等人", "url": "https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2815057", "doi": "10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.5389", "published": "2024-02-16", "dataDate": "1982年1月至2023年10月CPS；比較2018~2019與2022~2023合併期", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "表1：全體FTE 3,163,072→3,353,552，+6.0%（95% CI 1.4~10.6）；醫院1,908,177→1,938,235，+1.6%（-4.3~7.4）。", "evidence": "original_workforce_analysis", "note": "45萬餘位歷年護理師回覆；FTE按40小時工週。疫情後恢復顯示不能把單次下降直接外推成永久年減，且跨照護部門流動不同於全國淨損失。" }, { "id": "entRescheduling2022", "title": "疫情取消耳鼻喉手術的重排與完成率", "publisher": "OTO Open；Sagalow等人", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8977776/", "doi": "10.1177/2473974X221091156", "published": "2022-03-30", "dataDate": "2020/3/16~5/29預約手術，追蹤原定日期後6個月", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "Methods、表1及表2：美國單中心833案中取消555案；395案（71.17%）半年內重排並施作，中位70天。", "evidence": "retrospective_care_study", "note": "半年內完成率是流量，非跨年仍待服務存量；其補數不能當翌年保留率。服務類型、時間與資源權重不同，不能校準全健保50%。" }, { "id": "vaCanceledSurgery2021", "title": "疫情取消選擇性手術的短期後果：美國退伍軍人醫療系統", "publisher": "Annals of Surgery；Tran等人", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8187293/", "doi": "10.1097/SLA.0000000000004809", "published": "2021-07", "dataDate": "2020/3/13~19取消案，追蹤30及90天", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "Completion Rate、表3：3,326件取消手術，30天內67件（2.0%）、90天內494件（14.9%）完成。", "evidence": "retrospective_care_study", "note": "短期恢復率非年度未完成照護留存率；85.1%的補數也不是一年保留率，不能套為臺灣全健保50%。" }, { "id": "taiwanUtilizationResponse2022", "title": "疫情期間醫療利用的自願反應：臺灣全人口健保資料", "publisher": "PLOS ONE；Tsai、Yang", "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36480549/", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0271810", "published": "2022-12-08", "dataDate": "2020年2~5月，並觀察後續無本土病例期間", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "全人口縣市×週健保資料、差異中的差異分析：門診利用下降19%、住院下降10%。", "evidence": "population_utilization_study", "note": "利用量下降包含防疫降低感染與自願改變就醫，不全是量能不足導致未服務；不能用降幅或補數校準跨年需求保留比例。" }, { "id": "nurseStress2019", "title": "Wu等：台灣護理師職業壓力與疲勞研究", "publisher": "Journal of Nursing Management", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1155/2023/5599128", "dataDate": "2019年1~4月；2023年發表", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "表2；高雄單一醫學中心500名護理師；職業壓力68.86、個人疲勞52.25、工作疲勞48.68；不同量表", "evidence": "survey_sample" }, { "id": "salaryGrowth2020to2025", "title": "主計總處：2025年12月及全年薪資統計歷年表", "publisher": "行政院主計總處", "url": "https://www.stat.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=2724&s=235863", "dataDate": "2020~2025", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "薪資新聞稿11412附件第4頁；2020全年總薪資651,336元、2025年760,632元；5年CAGR3.1511%，未來外推為假設", "evidence": "official_observation" }, { "id": "nurseEnvironment2024", "title": "醫策會：2024年度台灣病人安全文化調查年報", "publisher": "醫策會（臺北榮總公開PDF）", "url": "https://org.vghtpe.gov.tw/savh/files/files/2024年度台灣病人安全文化調查年報(1).pdf", "dataDate": "2024", "retrieved": "2026-10-17", "locator": "表3-2-8（印刷第34頁）；59,966名護理人員工作狀況正向45.10%，比例不換算成疲累分數", "evidence": "survey_sample" } ], "files": [ { "path": "model.js", "sha256": "93302d01b80463b96956d44a33560a3a603846163533fa6f22b1230b05682735" }, { "path": "pressure.js", "sha256": "656cb975092edeca9b4cf80995a36b4e29910382074b182586d79b45c995cbaa" }, { "path": "care-system.js", "sha256": "fadf62097267eb82b015f6da6a2c74926a89d36cfa561b7544df8a1d5c4ce21e" }, { "path": "care-pathways.js", "sha256": "76653049e6e6f9e6f6571e1ef79bbbd47faee3dc95ae4a06baceefaab6bba524" }, { "path": "comparison.js", "sha256": "0522f7e557ce86694188741e07978e4c3f24f515ce2bdd52aedd3358262ba3c7" }, { "path": "data/nhi.json", "sha256": "d1b2c8ab8e3ee83b3defce166286e1ba0509fb3d59cf1dc7630bbdeba7292512" }, { 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